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Showing posts from January, 2021

How much Government Debt is the correct Debt?

As per the Economic survey and other studies, if Debt's interest rate is less than the Country's growth rate (measured by GDP), Debt is sustainable. Currently, the interest rate on sovereign Bonds on average is about 5%. If we calculate future interest rates from the yield curve, it is still less than 6%. Assuming worst-case scenario, if the interest rate increased to about 8%, then required GDP growth in real terms needs to greater than 3% (assuming the average inflation rate to be 3%), which does not seem to be an issue of much concern. But the question that arises is how much Debt should Country take? The Country's current Debt to GDP ratio is 68%, which amounts to 1.9 trillion USD . Assuming an interest rate of about 5% on average, this amounts to an interest payment of 95 Billion USD. India's 2020 budget was 410 Billion USD (Rs 30 lakh Crores). Hence about 25% of the budget is spent on the interest payment. The study says that if Govt spends this loan which tran...