India has tried to revive the economy
by giving a boost to the supply side. Many times when the problem of demand-side
comes, the government attempts to resolve this by fixing the supply side, and
this, in turn, sets things. But the current scenario is unique; usual methods
might not work.
To analyze this problem, we need
to divide customers based on their disposable income and suppliers by their
industry. For daily wage workers, laborers, vendors, workers on contract, and for
some regular wages workers whose jobs got effected due to Covid-19, there will
be a lack of demand. And, since in India the majority of the workforce is under
an unorganized sector, this cohort may amount to more than 90% of the population
and more than 50% of disposable income (rough idea). In the near future, too,
it will be hard to come back on track, and even if they do, there will always
be the apprehension of job loss, and hence disposable income will be hugely affected.
For the rest of people, majorly
regular wage workers and employees in the IT sector and all those whose income did
not get affected because of the current scenario, expenses must have got low in
the current situation. Their disposable
income must have increased or remained the same. But will they come out to
spend? They would also feel apprehensive about the current scenario and their
job and hence would like to continue saving.
So now the question is, will
boost to supply-side help in reviving the economy? It will help businesses to
sustain, but to spur up demand, the government needs to take some other
initiatives. Can a reduction in GST over some non-essentials like cars, TVs,
Laptops, etc. for some brief interval help revive the economy. This might lead
to an increase in demand for a short period of reduced GST rates and again back
to normal when these rates restored. But this can give a much necessary boost
to the industry.
Not all sectors can be revived at
this time. For example, the tourism industry, which is a good source of income
for hotels, transportation industries like Ola, Uber, etc., which employs millions
of drivers, will remain impacted. The government should try to employ these
workers in the alternate sector. As the demand for hospitals and nursing staff
would increase in the near future, the government might try to use hotels for
these services, ola/uber for medical transportation purposes and train some people
in nursing. The government can also work in strengthening health
infrastructure, roads, and other projects, which could help businesses increase
productivity in the long run, thereby providing necessary jobs.
The problem of migration was felt
in a significant way in the whole country. Instead of just trying to bring
workers in mainstream industries and cities, they should try to come up with
projects in many more towns and employ workers there.
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